Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Book Review: Fooled By Randomness by Taled Nasim


I read this one at the begining of the summer. I would summerize it as an analysis of the natural biases that we as humans have and how the affect out ability to make logical decision.

The author is a former trader who has made his fortune by basically betting ont he impossible, or what others consider impossible but he through a thorough mastery of probability considers quite probable. He does this by buying options on things that other thing will never happen. Since the probability of the even the option is based on it highly improbable to the seller he sells it for cheap. Sure enough many of the options that he buys end up expiring and so he is constantly loosing small amounts of money. But... when he does win, its a REALLY big win and that how he comes out on top.

He is a very well read individual and does a pretty good job of explaining some pretty heft statistics and probability stuff. Its definitely a book that will get you to rethink some of your basic assumptions about the nature of things. But be ware of the authors tendency to rumble on about how brilliant he is and how everyone he meets turns turns out to be an idiot and a disappointment.

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